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THE “ UNSTOPPABLE” CANADIAN HOUSING BUBBLE REVISITED

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Overview

 

Earlier this month I wrote about a tug-of-war between the Canadian Chartered Banks versus the Minister of Finance and the Bank of Canada.

 

The Banks were providing low rate mortgages to attract customers.

 

Last week, despite the concerns expressed by each of Jim Flaherty and Mark Carney, 2.99% mortgages re-appeared.

 

Over the weekend the following article appeared in several publications –

 

http://buswk.co/GIwL91

 

The article makes it clear that OSFI is doing the work of the Ministry and the Bank of Canada in pouring water on what they perceive to be an overheated housing market. If this approach is successful, it will hit the less established developers as they are the ones that are most affected by higher pre-sale requirements together with additional equity needs.

 

Not exactly a fair result as it would still allow a group of powerful developers that have strong equity bases and long-time banking relationships to prosper.

 

My scan of the marketplace indicates to me that it is the larger powerful developers who are more likely to promote pre-sale speculative activities than the smaller “one off” developer.

 

In any event, there may lots of projects that will, despite their pre-sales, have a difficult time in arranging construction financing to proceed.

 

Round 1 – to the Bank ofCanada!!